ChantRant.com

Parity, Revenue, and College Football

By Teddy Hayduk
on twitter: @TMHayduk

If you’re an FSU fan who has been recoiling for the past thirteen or so hours in response to the release of the CFB committee’s Top 4 this week, I am here to quell your fears. If you are worried and mad and fearing being left out of the Playoff, I am here to console you. If you honestly think that ESPN has some kind of unhealthy, inferiority-complex-fueled, SEC-spawned desire to cause FSU pain and anguish, I am here to tell you you’re wrong.

Here’s the deal. Sports make money because fans—the people who watch on tv and in the stands—don’t know how each matchup will end. Movies and tv shows are different because to an extent, there is a formula for success. There is a script. The end, no matter how shocking or convoluted (HOLY SHIT HE WAS DEAD THE WHOLE TIME) is pre-determined, and we know that. In sports, however, the results are solely a function of fate and, sometimes, luck. It is completely unwritten and impromptu. The less confident we feel about the probability of either team winning a game, the more inclined we will be to watch it—this is called having a high degree of product appeal. In a sport marketer’s perfect world, every matchup would create an exactly even, 50/50 chance for each team to win. This is why the NFL operates with a centralized authority. Having the ability to keep all 32 of its franchises as resource-homogeneous as possible (revenue), while employing strict salary caps and floors (expenditures), creates a league of 32 nearly identical teams. This, boys and girls, is called having a high degree of parity. A high degree of parity means that the NFL will probably exceed Roger Goodell’s goal of generating $25 billion in annual revenue by 2017.

Now—onward to CFB. CFB’s governing body, the NCAA, obviously cannot use monetary incentives to keep teams and conferences competitive with one another (wink wink). Furthermore, the ideals of amateurism, alumni network donations, and the individual educational goals and talent levels of recruits tend to create a naturally disparate hierarchy. In other words, MIT will probably never compete for a national title, and it is also equally unlikely that Alabama, Texas, Michigan, and UF will ever fall from the elite echelon of CFB programs. What this means is that CFB places itself into the opposite end of the parity spectrum than does the NFL. As we learned, a high degree of parity equals a high viewership rate, which equals higher TV and radio ratings, which equals a multitude of revenue-generating leverage points. The converse of this holds true, as well. CFB knows that having low parity hinders their chances to keep viewership rates high and therefore be able to negotiate even larger contracts in the future.

A concerned Nole observer strives to put his finger on what's missing in a team that keeps winning

 
By Teddy H.

Watching FSU navigate its way through the matchup against UVA left some glaring questions in my mind. Specifically, the offensive line play left much to be desired. When FSU can’t block up front, it has reverberations all over the field. First and most notably, not being able to block defensive linemen forces the likes of Karlos Williams to the outside, resulting in some of the most headache-inducing plays in recent memory. Watching Williams repeatedly try to bounce towards the sideline is like watching a Ford F250 SuperDuty King Ranch tow an aluminum johnboat. Guys like Karlos Williams don’t need to bounce to the outside—he’s 240 pounds, damnit—they need to have one or two quality bocks in the trenches to run behind, through, or over. Not around. “Around” is bad, because “around” is time consuming. “Around” results in no gain.

Beyond that, questionable offensive line play creates games where Jameis Winston (you may have heard of him) winds up on his back quite a lot. When that happens, he gets out of rhythm, hurries, and winds up making miscues. Throwing two early interceptions was evidence enough of that. Oh, and not to mention the physical toll it took on him. Repeatedly colliding with the ground at the mercy of a 300 lb defensive lineman for 4 hours does not sound like my idea of a nice evening of football. Towards the end of the game, his expressions said enough. He was in pain. Thank God Jameis is a sizeable human being, or we might be starting Sean McGuire next week vs. Miami…and I don’t think any of us want to go down that road again. 

Apart from Jameis’ troubles, our offensive line also managed to miss a crucial block that cost Dalvin Cook the ability to play the rest of the game. Preliminary injury reports are generally positive, including a Facebook post from his mother saying that he will play next week. However, Dalvin is the best back to step foot in Tallahassee in a very, very long time and should be blocked for as such. Every snap he misses due to injury or every snap he actually takes from behind an unfocused offensive line will cost him dearly in the long run.

Jameis’ early turnovers went for 14 quick points, and if UVA hadn’t had two boneheaded mistakes of their own, it might have been a very, very different game. Poor offensive line play manifests itself all over the field. Apart from that position group, I can’t be too negative about Saturday night. The receivers played well most of the game, especially the young guys. Rashad continued to put double moves on guys with so much ease and nonchalance I wondered if at times I was watching a reincarnated Jerry Rice (spare me your outrage—this is simply a literary technique called hyperbole). 

Also, most of the mistakes on defense weren’t Charlie Kelley’s fault, despite what some yahoos on sports twitter might have you think. Inexperience and youth were the main crux of the inconsistencies we saw in that regard. In fact I noticed a sizable uptick in the effectiveness of FSU’s pass rush towards the end of the game (if I remember correctly—I was coping with the frustration using alcohol, a topic we will revisit shortly). Across the board, though, FSU has an unbelievable stable of talent on defense, and we will watch them progress in leaps and bounds over the next couple of seasons. 

In the end, the Seminoles emerged victorious—in the weakest sense of the word—due to a pure talent disparity, not due to competitive drive, a visible passion for the game, or a killer instinct. They played flat, unsound football and still won. Overall, it was a game that will have a “W” next to it in the record books, and a [insert skeptical emoji face here] next to it in our memories.

As a final note, many people are beginning to question the overall progression of FSU over the course of this 2014 season. We all knew at the start that the likelihood of repeating last year’s conquests would make statisticians laugh uncontrollably. We knew that there would be a sizable “regression to the mean” effect take shape. After all, the central limit theorem isn’t an accident. However, at what point does “regression to the mean” simply become “regression”? At what point must we ask ourselves whether or not FSU can cut the nonsense and start playing the caliber of football we know they are capable of? I know FSU is one of only two unbeaten teams left in the nation, and I know they control their own destiny in the ACC and beyond. My issue with this is not based on a record, or a statistic, or even a margin of victory. It does, though, have everything to do with the lack of a perceived sense of purpose. 

FSU's Offensive Line Play: Not as bad as it looks?

How much hot tub time did Jameis Winston log after the UVA game? It had to be more than a quick dip. After being repeatedly battered by Virginia's D, you can almost feel his aches and pains (thanks goodness his ankle sprain wasn't aggravated). Blame the inconsistent, much maligned offensive line, right? It just hasn't been the same since Austin Barron's season-ending injury against Wake. Hell, it hasn't resembled the 2013 crew since the first few minutes of game one against OK State.

So maybe a little balance is due here. When Rick Trickett does a post-mortem today, here are three solid performances he's gotta love — and one he won't. Three hat-on-hat plays where everybody is doing their job, especially in a crucial run by Karlos that gave the Noles' some much-needed scoreboard breathing room. But, ouch, the last in the series is a QBs worst nightmare, with protection broken down and 290-lb. guys zeroing in for the kill.

All four tell a story. As always, game action shots are by Chris Holder.

Here Comes Virginia!

by Wall Street Nole

2011 was not the year to remember. After losing to Wake and Clemson on the road, the Noles rattled off 5 wins in a row only to have their dreams shattered by UVA. 

We all remember that night (Lowlights here if you can stomach them). We waited helplessly praying that the replay official would rule an incomplete pass so that D Hop could have a chance to win the game. When the ruling was incomplete, everyone was relieved thinking we would escape despite a sub par performance. Right on cue D Hop misses the kick. I was done! I was done with Jimbo Fisher and I stopped buying into his philosophy. 

Fast forward 3 years and we are now defending national champs with arguably the top coach in America. We have come a long way from that November night. One of the great things I like about this team is that they never overlook an opponent. Despite being 19 point favorites, the Noles will have to contend with a strong defense and a successful running game in UVA. 

Here are few thoughts heading into Saturday nights game: 

Relax, Jameis - One of my favorite series in the Louisville game was the three straight swing passes to Dalvin Cook. It was simple and effective. We have got to be more careful throwing into coverage and eyeing down receivers. At times, keep it simple and reduce the INT's. 

Pressure! - We have to find a way. With a healthy LB core would they consider going back to the 3-4 and getting out of nickel? As good as the safeties and DB's are for this team they have not proven to be effective on the blitzes. We must continue to figure things out and get a pass rush going. 

Stop the Run - Kevin Parks is a gamer. He could easily have a big game if FSU loses contain. Keep an eye on him and force UVA to use other options out of the backfield. 

FSU - UVA Stat Shootout: On paper the Wahoos actually looked pretty decent

Would you believe that Virginia leads in more key defensive stats than FSU? For example, sacks. The 'Hoos are cutting down opponent QBs at almost twice the rate (indicative of just how far FSU has slipped in that department). Of course, the Noles do rank higher in offensive numbers — except for rushing. UVA's Kevin Parks is fifth among ACC ball carriers with 626 yards and four TDs.

So while numbers don't tell the whole story, they do show FSU's next opponent is another team that can't be taken lightly. In fact, UVA is better in more of the following NCAA stats than the Noles.*

Pass Offense 
FSU  327 ypg - #9 Nationally
UVA  243.9 ypg - #57     "

Passing Yards Allowed
UVA  225.7 ypg - #62
FSU  240.6 upg - #77

Rush Offense
UVA  153.7 ypg - #72
FSU 131.8 ypg - #99

Rushing Yards Allowed
UVA  119.4 ypg - #20
FSU  148 ypg - #51 

Scoring Offense
FSU  38.4 points per game - #14
UVA  26.7    "         "       "     - #81 

Scoring Defense
FSU  22.8 ppg - #41
UVA  24.2 ppg - #50 

Total Offense
FSU  459 ypg - #32
UVA  397.6 ypg - #69 

Total Defense (yards allowed)
UVA  345.1 - #31
FSU  388.6 - #61 

Turnover Margin
UVA  +. 22 - #52
FSU  Minus .13 - #77 

Sacks
UVA  2.89 per game - #24
FSU  1.50 per game - #99 

Sacks Allowed
UVA  .89 per game - #11
FSU  2.13 per game - #72 

3rd Down Conversion %
FSU  .470 - #20
UVA  .441 - #33 

Fewest Penalties Per Game
UVA  6.67 per game - #83
FSU  6.88 per game - #90

 *Virginia has played 9 games, FSU played 8.

Persistence Pays Off! A Look Back at FSU vs Louisville

by Wall Street Nole

It was a wild one Thursday night. It was another comeback victory, another game to silence the critics and it was another game that #5 shined when the team needed him the most.

The country watched, specifically the SEC homers, praying to god we would falter. That wasn't the case. The Noles yet again, find a way to win. I can honestly say I've never seen a team as resilient as this one.  Here are a few takeaways from the game. The Noles must continue to get better with another strong defensive opponent in UVA coming into Doak next week. 

Let's get the negative stuff out of the way first:

• As many good play calls as there were, there were some godawful ones too. Zone read with Karlos from the one yard line..."Come on Man!" How about the call on 3rd/4th and inches from midfield? I know you have a green center but you have to at least try to run the sneak once. 

• The defense is awful and it starts with coaching. Yep, I said it. I know we are thin, I know we are young and I know we are injured. Having said that I'm tired of hearing excuses. We have too much talent in the secondary and two great lineman in Edwards Jr and Goldman to be struggling this much. Schematically it's a disaster, you have to utilize your strengths and we just aren't doing that. Our base set is nickel with two undersized linebackers in the box against power run teams. It just doesn't make sense. I was against the internal hire of Kelly and I still think it was a huge flaw not taking a national search for the best DC that $ could have bought last year.  

The Good Stuff:

• The Cook is in the kitchen!  Dalvin Cook is spectacular! He is the total package and he showed that the Syracuse game was not a fluke. He is living up to his 5 star ranking as he continues play solid ball. He has speed, hands and an ability to break tackles at only 190 pounds. Keep feeding him the rock, Coach, Cook is the future. 

• The Numbers Don't Lie - 574 yards and 42 points on the nation's best defensive team is a massive success. No one thought this was possible. The haters are silenced once again. 

• Thursday Jinx No More! - Fisher is now 3-1 on Thursday night and Seminole fans can rest assured that the Jinx is gone. He has come through nicely coaching teams to victory despite facing adversity.

Get ready for another great game this Saturday in the Doak. Look for the Noles to continue improving as they search for their 25th victory in a row.