After Further Review: Tom Rob's updated Maryland Preview

OFFENSE

Maryland was expected to struggle on offense and it largely has, as they rank 93rd in the country in total offense. However, the Terps have not committed many turnovers and with the midseason promotion of redshirt freshman Danny O’Brien at QB, they have run a lot less option than people expected.  Speaking of O’Brien (1,571 yards, 54%, 16 TDs, 4 ints.), his emergence has been a key reason for the Terps’ unexpected success. O’Brien has been a good game manager, avoided mistakes, and generally put Maryland in good positions.  Former starter Jamarr Robinson (349 yards, 53%, 4 TDs, 2 ints., 98 rushing yards) still sees the field some as a change-of-pace.

As expected, Maryland has a nice one-two punch at running back with Da’Rel Scott and Davin Meggett. Scott (431 yards, 4.5 average, 3 TDs, 12 receptions, 162 yards, 3 TDs) is a talent, but has been bitten by the injury bug most of his career.  He has largely avoided that so far this year, but has been inconsistent. Meggett (575 yards, 5.5 average, 4 TDs) leads the team in rushing, but has actually seen his playing time decrease as the year has worn on. That is partly due to the emergence of D.J. Adams.  Adams (193 yards, 4.6 average, 6 TDs) began with a role as the short-yardage and goal line back, but he has seen his playing time increase due to surprising quickness and persistence. The running game still isn’t all that special, but these guys can all get the job done and are serviceable.

The pass catching corps is largely Torrey Smith and a bunch of other guys, but that was somewhat expected. Smith (44 receptions, 752 yards, 8 TDs) is one of the ACC’s best and I’d be surprised if he didn’t have a long, productive NFL career. He’s a matchup nightmare due to his combo of size and speed. Smith has great playmaking ability, although he has been battling an injury lately. The other guy to look out for is Adrian Cannon. Cannon (27 receptions, 238 yards, 1 TD) had a big junior year, but has been somewhat inconsistent as a senior. He has a ton of talent, but still hasn’t put it all together. The rest of the WR group (Quintin McCree, Ronnie Tyler, Kevin Dorsey, Kerry Boykins, LaQuan Williams) have had moments here and there, but none of them have more than 11 catches so far. 

The tight end group was a question mark coming into the season, but Matt Furstenberg (10 receptions, 166 yards, 1 TD) has been pretty solid.

The offensive line is a patchwork unit after losing two starting tackles to injury, but the group has been decent, if unspectacular. After Pete DeSouza and Justin Gilbert were both lost for the season, many people figured the Terps would really struggle.  However, Maryland has been okay here. Not great, but okay. And okay has been good enough to win several games, although this line was absolutely manhandled by Miami. The lineup now consists of LT R.J. Dill (So., who had been starting at RT before Gilbert’s injury), LG Andrew Gonnella (Jr., former walk-on), C Bennett Fulper (So., 4 starts at guard in 2009), RG Justin Lewis (So., good run blocker), and RT Paul Pinegar (Sr., former walk-on who has played C and T). This is not an elite group, but they have played pretty well. Maryland allowed 11 sacks in games against West Virginia and Clemson, but has allowed only 6 in their other 8 games and none in the last two ACC contests. 

DEFENSE

Maryland had a pretty bad defense last year, finishing 83rd in total defense and 100th in scoring defense. Thanks to an ability to create turnovers, the Terps have improved on defense and rank 39th in total defense this season. Utilizing an attacking style that features a variety of blitzes, Maryland is willing to take chances to create pressure and turnovers.  For the most part, it has worked.

The defensive line has had a few nice surprises with the emergence of Joe Vellano and A.J. Francis, but has been pretty average overall. Along with Vellano (51 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 5 sacks) and Francis (37 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks), the Terps also have Zach Kerr (17 tackles), a space-eater, to form a decent trio at tackle.  At end, Maryland has depth in numbers, but less talent. Drew Gloster (26 tackles, 1 tackle for loss) has never lived up to his billing. Justin Anderson (18 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss) has shown flashes, but is inconsistent. The backups haven’t been very productive either.

This defense is led by a solid LB corps that features three good starters and a few experienced backups. The leader is tackling machine Alex Wujciak.  Wujciak (95 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss, 2 ints.) isn’t the most athletic guy in the world and may be a bit overhyped due to his stats, but he has a high football IQ and rarely makes mistakes.  OLBs Adrian Moten (65 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, 4 ints.) and Demetrius Hartsfield (60 tackles, 4 tackles for loss) are disruptive and productive. Backups Darin Drakeford (27 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 1 sack), Bradley Johnson (13 tackles), and David Mackall (16 tackles, 2 sacks) can give the starters a breather and perform at a high level.

As was expected at the beginning of the year, the secondary has been a mixed bag. The safety trio of starters Kenny Tate (81 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks, 2 ints.) and Antwine Perez (48 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, 3 ints.) and backup Eric Franklin (14 tackles, 1 int.) are pretty solid, although none of them are great in coverage. The corners, though, are the real problem. If there isn’t pressure on the QB, this unit can really be exposed because they are, well, pretty mediocre.  Junior Cameron Chism (48 tackles, 7 pass breakups) was expected to really emerge this year, but he has been maddeningly inconsistent and beaten a lot. Classmate Trenton Hughes (25 tackles, 1 int.) has also struggled, although he has been picked on less than Chism. Redshirt freshman Dexter McDougle (21 tackles, 3 pass breakups) has been pretty much the only corner off the bench who the coaches trust. Statistically, this unit has not been terrible, but this group isn’t super talented either and has benefited from sacks and turnovers to mask some of their deficiencies. 

SPECIAL TEAMS

Travis Baltz has had a good year as the kicker and punter. Baltz has hit on 9 of 11 field goal attempts and is averaging 42.9 yards per punt.  Tony Logan is one of the most dangerous return men in the country, averaging 19.4 yards per punt return, with two touchdowns. The Terps have also blocked 4 punts.  The only downside here is the punt coverage unit, which is allowing just over 10 yards per return.

OVERALL

I’ll be the first to admit that I totally wrote Maryland off at the beginning of the year. I didn’t think a winning record was possible. However, turnovers have been key to the resurgence of Maryland. The Terps have forced a lot of them and not committed many themselves. That recipe has worked.  It has helped too, though, that Maryland has played a very weak schedule and beaten only one FBS team (Navy) with a winning record. Thus, many people are still unsure that this team is legit. 

O’Brien has been a pleasant surprise, but Maryland is still a team that is better than the sum of its parts as aside from guys like Scott, Meggett, Smith, Vellano, Francis, and the LB corps, this is a pretty average team talent-wise. Maryland has played to their strengths, not made very many mistakes, and capitalized on opponents’ miscues. The turnover battle will likely be key for the FSU game. The FSU defense is starting to wear down and Maryland will probably be able to put some points on the board.

Much like the Clemson game, FSU’s best bet may be to play solid red zone defense and not give up big plays. Unless FSU’s offense makes a ton of mistakes, I don’t see the Terps keeping the Seminoles off the scoreboard. I think this game will probably be too close for comfort, but FSU has too much talent to let this one slip away. I think FSU wins 24-20.