by Mobius
As long as Bobby Bowden has been the Head Coach at FSU the ‘Noles have been known to play one of the toughest schedules in the nation; but last season saw Florida State take on one of the worst group of Out-of-Conference opponents in recent memory. Fortunately that one-year blip is behind us and FSU has lined up an OOC schedule for 2009 that’s closer to our standards (in advance of the absolutely absurd OOC schedule the ‘Noles face next year). So let’s take a look ahead at the non-ACC teams FSU will play in 2009 and my take on the ‘Noles chances of coming away from each contest with a victory.
Looking over the four opponents one glaring similarity stands out – Each team returns an experienced starter at quarterback who could prove to be a pain in the ass for the ‘Noles. For a team like FSU with question-marks on the defensive line and in the secondary that could pose a bit of a problem, especially since three of the non-conference games will take place before October, when the youngsters on D are still getting their feet wet. How well FSU can deal with the four talented QBs will go a long way to determining the ‘Noles OOC record and post-season fate.
So without further ado let’s take a look at the ‘Noles non-conference slate for 2009, along with some of the opposition’s stats from the 2008 campaign…
Jacksonville State
2008 Record – 8-3 (6-2, T-2nd in Ohio Valley Conference)
’08 Total Offense – 408.1 ypg (#15 Offense in the FCS)
‘08 Rushing Offense – 182.5 ypg / 4.8 ypc (#26 in the FCS)
’08 Passing Offense – 225.6 ypg / 7.9 ypa (#41 in the FCS)
’08 Total Defense – 354.5 ypg (#66 Defense in the FCS)
’08 Rush Defense – 157.4 ypg / 4.4 ypc (#72 in the FCS)
’08 Pass Defense – 197.5 ypg / 6.2 ypa (#58 in the FCS)
Returning Starters – 17 (7 off. / 9 def. / 1 st)
The lone soft spot in the OOC schedule is the Jacksonville State Gamecocks from the second-tier FCS. You can hardly blame FSU for taking a breather here considering the rest of their schedule, but after the scare against Troy a couple years ago no FSU fan should take this game for granted. Not only will the ‘Noles be coming off of a tough game against Miami and a short week of practice, but JSU has a quarterback who’s no stranger to big-time competition – former 5-star recruit and LSU Tiger Ryan Perrilloux.
The Downside – Dual-threat QBs like Perrilloux have routinely been a problem for Mickey Andrews’ defenses recently (see: Vick, Michael or Taylor, Tyrod). Not only did Perrilloux lead the Gamecocks in passing last year, he was also their second-leading rusher, scoring seven TDs on the ground.
The Upside – FSU should enjoy a huge advantage in the trenches. Jacksonville State’s rush defense wasn’t great last year even against FCS competition, so FSU should be able to establish the running game early in this contest and wear down the Gamecocks’ defense, opening up the passing game for Christian Ponder and Co.
Pain in the Ass QB – Perrilloux (2318 passing yards / 7.8 ypa / 19-13 TD-INT / 368 rushing yards / 3.1 ypc / 7 TDs in 2008). He managed to get himself suspended for JSU’s opener against Georgia Tech, but he’ll be rested and ready for this game.
Telling Statistic – Perrilloux accounted for 60% of the Gamecocks’ offense in 2008. Stop him and the game is pretty much over.
FSU’s Chances of Victory – 98%. Really, unless the team bus careens off the Pensacola Street flyover this should be a relatively easy victory for FSU.
@ BYU
2008 Record – 10-3 (6-2, 3rd in the Mountain West)
’08 Total Offense – 444.1 ypg (#16 Offense in the FBS)
‘08 Rushing Offense – 133.7 ypg / 4.1 ypc (#72 in the FBS)
’08 Passing Offense – 310.4 ypg / 8.2 ypa (#6 in the FBS)
’08 Total Defense – 355.3 ypg (#58 Defense in the FBS)
’08 Rush Defense – 139.0 ypg / 3.8 ypc (#56 in the FBS)
’08 Pass Defense – 216.3 ypg / 6.9 ypa (#75 in the FBS)
Returning Starters – 13 (4 off. / 7 def. / 2 st)
A week later FSU travels to the overly-friendly confines of LaVell Edwards Stadium to face the Stormin’ Mormons of BYU. A battle between teams with contrasting styles, this game should turn out to be a contest of which team does a better job establishing its offensive identity – can BYU throw on FSU’s young secondary, or will FSU run rough-shod over BYU’s depleted defensive line?
The Downside – I mentioned before that mobile QBs have been a match-up problem for FSU’s defenses lately. Another persistent issue has been covering talented tight ends, and BYU boasts one of the nation’s best in senior Dennis Pitta. As a guy who had Pitta on his (undefeated) CFB fantasy team last season trust me when I tell you the guy is a beast (83 receptions, 1083 yards, and 6 TDs in ’08; just in case you didn’t believe me). Dekoda Watson and the safeties need to stick to Pitta like Ralph Friedgen on a bucket of fried chicken, especially in the red zone.
The Upside – Rushing defense wasn’t exactly BYU’s strong suit last year and since then they’ve lost some of their best defensive linemen. If FSU’s offensive line is all they’re cracked up to be the ‘Noles should be able to run on the Cougars, eating up the clock and limiting chances for BYU’s dangerous offense.
Pain in the Ass QB – Max Hall (3957 passing yards / 8.3 ypa / 35-14 TD-INT / 110 rushing yards / 1.7 ypc / 4 TDs). An early-season Heisman candidate in 2008, Hall will be looking to garner more national recognition at FSU’s expense.
Telling Statistic – BYU went 0-3 vs. teams ranked in the top 25 in total defense in ’08, 10-0 vs. everyone else (FSU was ranked #15). The difference? The front sevens of the better defenses overwhelmed BYU’s offensive line and limited Hall’s effectiveness – he was under 55% completions with 0 TDs and 7 INTs in losses to TCU and Utah. In other words, FSU’s really needs a strong performance from its young D-Line in this game.
FSU’s Chances of Victory – 65%. Despite the altitude and travel I like this match-up for FSU. BYU’s weaknesses play to FSU’s strengths and we should be able to wear them down with the ground game. Putting heat on Hall will be a big key, though.
South Florida
2008 Record – 8-5 (2-5, 6th in the Big East)
’08 Total Offense – 405.0 ypg (#32 Offense in the FBS)
‘08 Rushing Offense – 165.4 ypg / 4.2 ypc (#44 in the FBS)
’08 Passing Offense – 239.6 ypg / 7.7 ypa (#41 in the FBS)
’08 Total Defense – 287.0 ypg (#10 Defense in the FBS)
’08 Rush Defense – 95.2 ypg / 2.8 ypc (#10 in the FBS)
’08 Pass Defense – 191.8 ypg / 6.6 ypc (#37 in the FBS)
Returning Starters – 13 (5 off. / 6 def. / 2 st)
Comments? Questions? Kudos?