Game Preview by Bill from Tampa
Florida State vs Duke, Sunday 2:00 PM,
TV – FSN-FL
Records:
FSU – 16-6, ACC 4-4 (t 6th); Road overall 2-5, ACC 0-3
Duke – 18-4, ACC 5-3 (5th); Home overall 14-1, ACC 3-1
Last Game: FSU demolished Maryland 96-79 shooting 62%
from the floor. Duke lost to UVa in OT 68-66 on a jumper falling away from Sean Singletary with one second left in overtime.
Key Stats (ACC only):
Scoring offense – FSU 78.0 ppg (2nd), Duke 70.6 ppg (9th)
Scoring defense – FSU 76.2 ppg (8th) Duke 62.1 ppg (1st)
Free throws – FSU .821 (1st, 3rd in NCAA), Duke .729 (4th)
FG percentage – FSU .484 (2nd), Duke .484 (2nd)
FG percentage defense – FSU .493 (11th), .419 (3rd)
3-pt FG percentage – FSU .418 (1st), Duke .328 (11th)
3-pt FG percentage defense – FSU .335 (4th), Duke .352 (7th)
Rebounding margin – FSU +1.8 (5th), Duke +6.7 (2nd)
Assists – FSU 13.5 (6th), Duke 14.1 (2nd)
Turnover margin – FSU +.25 (4th), Duke -.12 (6th)
Steals – FSU 6.88 (6th), Duke 7.13 (5th)
Projected Starters (stats for all games)
Al Thornton – 18.6 ppg (1st), 6.6 rpg (1st), .556 FG%, .400 3-pt%, .850 FT% 33 stls (1st)
Toney Douglas – 13.5 ppg, .500 FG% .421 3-pt%, .783 FT%,
60 A, 54 TO
Jason Rich – 11.4 ppg, .557 FG%, .440 3-pt%, .818 FT%, 3.4 rpg
Isaiah Swann – 9.0 ppg, .439 FG%, .351 3-pt%, .778 FT%, 72 A (1st), 46 TO
Uche Echefu – 7.4 ppg, .466 FG%, .354 3-pt%, .783 FT%,
4.0 rpg (2nd)
Josh McRoberts - 13.0 ppg, 8.1 rpg, .497 FG%, .250 3-pt%,
83 A (1st), 52 blks (1st)
Lance Thomas - 4.8 ppg, 2.8 rpg, .569 FG%, .568 FT%,
Greg Paulus - 8.7 ppg, 3.7 apg, .444 FG%, .432 3-pt %, .811 FT%,
61 TO (1st)
DeMarcus Nelson - 14.5 ppg, 5.6 rpg, .509 FG%, .390 3-pt%,
.588 FT%, 32 stls (1st)
Jon Scheyer - 12.0 ppg, 3.0 rpg, .400 FG%, .368 3-pt%, .871 FT%
Bench:
Florida State – (Mims, Allen, Breeden, Reid) 16.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg,
53 stls, 92 A
Duke – (McClure, Henderson, Zoubek) 15.7 ppg, 10.6 rpg,
41 A, 46 stls
Outlook: Duke has done it with defense this season. The Blue Devils have always been a good defensive team, but this year they have relied on it much more to win games while the offense has struggled. The Devils like to extend their defense and put a great deal of pressure on the ball. Deny the pass to run the clock down and either force a bad shot before the buzzer goes off or cause the turnover is Duke’s base defense. They will double team and trap the ball carrier on those places on the floor they know the opponent favors. As a result of more focus on the defensive end the Blue Devils rank 8th in the NCAA allowing just 56.6 ppg.
Offensively Duke has not yet established a total identity. Relying on a forward rather than point guard to set up plays, McRoberts leads the team in assists at 5.4 per game while Paulus had turnover difficulties for much of the season. The key for the Seminole’s defense will be holding Duke under 70 points. In all four of their losses the Devils have failed to reach 70.
It will be a role reversal of sorts as in year’s past Duke would push the ball and set up for the three pointer. This season Duke has slowed the tempo way down while FSU has pushed it way
up, getting out in transition as much as possible to set up the three. The ‘Noles have averaged 8 three pointers made in their last five games.
While Leonard Hamilton constantly says the ‘Noles need to win by committee it’s no secret that Thornton fuels the offense. The John Wooden Award candidate delivers in the big games such as his 37 points in FSU’s visit to Cameron last season. But Thornton has been even more impressive in conference play averaging
23 points per game.
For Florida State to win, they must continue to do those things they did in their four conference victories. Play smart, take care of the ball, be patient on offense against the smothering Duke defense, and try and avoid letting the Blue Devils get that 8 to 10 point lead midway through the game as the Devils are very good at playing with the lead.
Defense has not been FSU’s strong suit this year. Technique issues and proper rotations have led to a field goal percentage defense that does not suit Hamilton. Sunday, the Seminoles will have to communicate well to counter the many screens that Duke will try and run them through.
Comments? Questions? Kudos?